Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8ab7…756b sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,195 (+9%) realized +$1,934 · open +$261
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%69W / 99L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$429est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$557
14 days+$1,391
30 days+$2,383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,629
crypto 4% −$272
world 1% −$50
other 0% −$71
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 45% -3.1%
≤30d 106 +2.9% -6.9% 43% 42% +0.8%
≤90d 155 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 39% -1.0%
all 168 -4.0% -13.1% 41% 39% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 39% -1.9%
10% -21.4% 39% -11.3%
15% -29.0% 38% -19.9%
20% -36.0% 34% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$117 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$1,934
Unrealized+$261
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses69 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$429
Open positions2
Markets (closed)168 / 170
History coverage98d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 38¢ 100¢ $130 $343 +$213 (+164%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 33¢ 48¢ $110 $158 +$48 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $217 +$124 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $376 +$378 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $206 −$200 -97%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $104 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $183 +$318 +173%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $157 +$129 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $263 +$150 +57%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $254 +$220 +87%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$538 +263%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $262 +$109 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $507 +$402 +79%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $275 +$417 +152%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$5 +93%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $408 +$695 +170%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $272 −$266 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $506 +$297 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $292 −$286 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $283 −$276 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $382 −$375 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $407 +$94 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $261 −$18 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $325 −$99 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $82 −$41 -49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $124 −$121 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $157 +$125 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$17 -32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $511 +$1,185 +232%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $93 −$90 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $527 −$520 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $610 +$695 +114%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $356 −$350 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $77 −$75 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $225 −$219 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 +$146 +143%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $128 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $112 34m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 38¢ $132 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $217 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $274 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $206 45h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 46h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 40¢ $24 47h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $79 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 30¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $183 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $157 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $263 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $122 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $254 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 27¢ $204 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 70¢ $262 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $86 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $4 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $2 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $1 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $5 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $2 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 14¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $507 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $254 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 20¢ $128 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $275 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $272 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.32 · official $501.32 (match) · 349 history records