Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ab0…3e95 politics 137 markets active 4h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$146 (+0%) realized +$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,519per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$38
14 days−$147
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$129
other 42% +$191
sports 6% +$206
economics 4% −$12
world 2% −$5
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$176
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 48 +1.3% -8.3% 12% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 130 -2.8% -12.0% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 136 -2.6% -11.9% 9% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -20.3% 7% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 6% -26.1%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,692) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$7 · ×11.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,519
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $167 $168 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $2,396 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,056 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,604 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $6,834 −$8 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,154 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,601 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,801 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,484 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,118 −$5 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $1,199 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,767 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,193 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,426 −$4 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $61 +$78 +129%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $65 +$64 +97%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,094 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,382 −$2 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $52 +$32 +62%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $486 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $629 +$1 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $1,607 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 28 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,757 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $998 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $3,424 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $3,028 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $78 +$140 +180%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $42 +$19 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $704 4h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $705 8h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 8h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $490 9h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $732 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $733 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $768 2d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $769 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,212 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,201 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,291 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,292 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,579 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,580 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,598 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,601 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,420 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,422 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,421 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,422 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,550 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,552 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,150 9d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,592 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,595 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,360 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.63 · official $167.63 (match) · 418 history records