Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aae…319c world 32 markets active 7d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,160 (-9%) realized −$2,712 · open −$448
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%7W / 23L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,055per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2,253
30 days−$2,971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$2,936
world 12% −$565
crypto 3% −$977
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 11% -18.8%
≤90d 11 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 18% -19.5%
all 30 -37.7% -43.6% 23% 17% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 17% -21.3%
10% -49.0% 13% -28.8%
15% -53.9% 10% -35.7%
20% -58.5% 10% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,449) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -71% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$239 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$2,154
Realized−$2,712
Unrealized−$448
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses7 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,055
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,568 $2,140 −$428 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $34 $14 −$20 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,810 −$853 -22%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,644 −$560 -12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5,229 −$915 -18%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3,861 −$650 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,248 +$72 +3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $4,681 +$363 +8%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,449 +$289 +20%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? May 22 $1,000 −$323 -32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 22 $1,975 −$395 -20%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 18 $260 −$254 -98%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 16 $20 +$14 +71%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $160 +$574 +359%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 04 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 04 $500 −$500 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $139 −$139 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $128 −$128 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in January? Jan 30 $25 $0 -1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $67 +$21 +31%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $235 −$235 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $126 +$125 +99%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 January 12-18? Jan 12 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Jan 12 $40 −$40 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Jan 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2,644 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $847 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $802 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,079 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $803 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,320 10d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $5,044 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,738 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2,248 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $644 26d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $33 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1,580 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,975 30d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 30d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $260 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3,236 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2,110 30d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,408 30d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3,282 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,641 39d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,861 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,737 39d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,073 39d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3,810 39d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3,809 39d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $623 60d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $800 60d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 60d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,000 60d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $419 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,153.86 · official $2,153.86 (match) · 135 history records