Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8aae…fb52 sports 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$85 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$45
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$20
sports 30% +$15
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.2% +11.5% 44% 44% +1.4%
≤30d 52 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -4.5%
≤90d 52 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -4.5%
all 52 +8.4% -1.9% 42% 42% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 42% -4.5%
10% -11.3% 40% -13.7%
15% -19.9% 38% -22.0%
20% -27.7% 33% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 59
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 20¢ $95 $42 −$53 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$60 +118%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$4 +34%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 +$10 +101%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Scor Jun 24 $5 +$8 +157%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$11 +216%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2. Jun 23 $20 +$30 +150%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$12 +120%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$19 +188%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$12 +115%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 −$75 -79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $5 +$8 +157%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 11m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $91 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $5 10h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 47¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $111 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 24h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 A BUY 21¢ $5 25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win o BUY 35¢ $5 26h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 28h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $0 29h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $0 29h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $5 29h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $0 29h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $0 29h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $10 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.61 · official $39.59 · 101 history records