Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8aad…afc5 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$98 (+10%) realized +$99 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$13
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 93% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 93% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 15 +12.9% +2.1% 93% 33% -7.7%
all 15 +12.9% +2.1% 93% 33% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 33% -7.7%
10% -7.6% 27% -16.6%
15% -16.6% 20% -24.6%
20% -24.7% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$100 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 89¢ 86¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$45 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$17 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.13 · official $18.20 · 30 history records