Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8aac…309a crypto 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$153 (+0%) realized +$192 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate75%170W / 56L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$95
14 days+$585
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$8
other 34% +$127
politics 17% +$1
crypto 7% −$162
culture 6% +$171
finance 1% −$15
sports 1% +$26
weather 1% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.5% -4.5% 86% 14% -8.5%
≤30d 56 -10.1% -18.6% 52% 16% -9.2%
≤90d 91 -4.3% -13.4% 63% 20% -9.4%
all 226 -3.8% -12.9% 75% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 19% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 7% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$32 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses170 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)226 / 231
History coverage133d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $66 $120 +$54 (+82%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 45¢ $32 $101 +$69 (+216%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $66 $95 +$29 (+44%)
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $66 $19 −$47 (-71%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 3¢ $65 $14 −$52 (-79%)
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $34 $5 −$29 (-84%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $66 $2 −$64 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $333 +$10 +3%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 19 $138 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $7,071 $0 -0%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $275 +$79 +29%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $44 +$2 +4%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 15 $57 +$1 +2%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 13 $554 +$3 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,292 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $703 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 10 $271 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $512 +$4 +1%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $270 +$146 +54%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $2,128 +$277 +13%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $888 +$37 +4%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $22 −$17 -79%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $4 −$3 -78%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $2 −$1 -50%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 07 $9 −$9 -99%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 06 $268 +$50 +19%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $773 +$8 +1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater t Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 05 $25 +$8 +34%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 05 $567 +$21 +4%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $80 $0 -1%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $79 $0 -1%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $75 −$1 -1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 02 $9 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 −$44 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,526 +$27 +2%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $22 +$3 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $273 +$7 +3%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 31 $21 +$6 +29%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $272 +$26 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$9 -9%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 30 $165 −$112 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $841 −$370 -44%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 29 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,206 +$41 +3%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 28 $0 $0 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $498 −$45 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,587 +$175 +11%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 24 $1 −$1 -76%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18m? May 24 $2 −$2 -89%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $1,050 +$48 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw SELL No 100¢ $4 18m
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $48 1h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 100¢ $343 2h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 100¢ $139 2h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 98¢ $209 2h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 89¢ $140 3h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $48 3h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $137 3h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 83¢ $68 3h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $105 3h
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 96¢ $91 3h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $272 3h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 97¢ $28 3h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $81 3h
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $105 3h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 99¢ $36 32h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 100¢ $54 32h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 100¢ $24 36h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 100¢ $240 36h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 95¢ $40 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $49 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $11 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $8 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 97¢ $43 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 98¢ $147 39h
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 98¢ $47 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.66 · official $401.20 (match) · 949 history records