Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8aac…e0d2 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$761now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$8
other 23% −$3
world 2% −$7
sports 1% +$14
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.5% -39.9% 40% 20% -9.8%
≤30d 5 -33.5% -39.9% 40% 20% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 36% -9.6%
all 33 -5.8% -14.8% 58% 30% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 30% -9.6%
10% -22.9% 27% -18.3%
15% -30.4% 21% -26.1%
20% -37.2% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$761
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage299d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $761 $761 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $3,020 −$5 -0%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? May 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? May 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? May 12 $13 +$11 +83%
Murray State Racers vs. Bradley Braves Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Apr 08 $8 +$8 +100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $28 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 G Feb 14 $5 +$7 +133%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 14 $10 +$14 +138%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Jan 25 $4 +$1 +14%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5) Jan 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Jan 25 $10 +$4 +39%
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn Jan 24 $17 +$7 +43%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 23 $16 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 12 $16 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Nov 12 $15 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 28 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 4PM ET Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by September 15? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia announces air truce by September 30? Sep 07 $3 $0 -2%
South Florida vs. Florida Sep 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona State vs. Mississippi State Sep 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 06 $1,896 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 06 $896 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 06 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 05 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Sep 05 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $1,200 35m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1,202 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $637 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $1,405 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $1,454 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $3 28h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $7 30h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $8 30h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $53 30h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $289 31h
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle BUY Alexandrova/Noskova 75¢ $10 31h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $1,818 31h
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $37 42d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 42d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $5 42d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 76d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 76d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? BUY Yes 65¢ $7 76d
Murray State Racers vs. Bradley Braves BUY Murray State Racers 41¢ $10 113d
Grizzlies vs. Pacers BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $8 113d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 129d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 129d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 G BUY los kogutos 43¢ $5 129d
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Fluxo 28¢ $5 129d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 42¢ $10 129d
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Tien (+2.5) BUY Tien 74¢ $10 149d
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Zverev 72¢ $10 149d
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul BUY Alcaraz 88¢ $4 149d
Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Ethan Quinn BUY Mensik 70¢ $17 150d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $16 190d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.59 · official $760.59 (match) · 80 history records