Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aab…2a65 sports 571 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate82%467W / 103L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$355
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$274
other 24% +$107
crypto 5% +$3
politics 3% +$12
world 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -34.6% -40.8% 62% 12% -9.6%
≤30d 117 -2.4% -11.7% 77% 27% -12.6%
≤90d 570 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 23% -9.9%
all 570 +0.2% -9.4% 82% 23% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 23% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 15% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses467 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)570 / 571
History coverage64d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 570 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $49 +$11 +22%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $351 +$3 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$4 -4%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $211 −$102 -48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -9%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $335 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $54 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$9 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $400 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $120 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 +$6 +246%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $114 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $30 −$5 -18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $379 +$150 +40%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $192 −$12 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 −$30 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$49 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $53 −$33 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $504 $0 +0%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $98 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 1h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $351 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 82¢ $49 6h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $12 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 100¢ $50 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will BUY $98 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $97 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL 22¢ $109 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 40¢ $211 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $5 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes $26 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $200 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $6 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 7d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $500 7d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 7d
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1201 history records