Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8aa9…7a0e weather 238 markets active 20h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$788 (-6%) realized −$756 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%126W / 109L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 42% +$30
other 32% +$86
sports 6% −$568
tech 6% +$21
culture 5% −$13
world 5% −$402
crypto 3% +$7
economics 1% +$13
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.0% +3.2% 100% 33% -1.6%
≤30d 9 -21.1% -28.6% 67% 33% -1.8%
≤90d 90 +13.8% +2.9% 60% 33% -14.8%
all 235 +20.6% +9.1% 54% 37% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 37% -14.9%
10% -1.3% 31% -23.0%
15% -10.8% 24% -30.4%
20% -19.6% 19% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$756
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses126 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)235 / 238
History coverage247d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 85¢ 72¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-15%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 32¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Yes 62¢ $30 $3 −$28 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? Jun 10 $63 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $59 +$20 +34%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $37 +$8 +22%
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9? May 25 $11 −$10 -92%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (BO5) - Esports World Cu May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $52 +$2 +4%
LoL: BRUTE vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season May 17 $2 +$1 +50%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Regular Season May 14 $1 +$1 +53%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $539 −$539 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? May 08 $165 +$6 +4%
Will Drake feature Lil Baby on ICEMAN? May 08 $38 −$28 -75%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 06 $224 −$194 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on May May 06 $8 −$8 -92%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 06 $7 −$6 -92%
Will MrBeast's video get between 69 and 70 million views on day 4? May 05 $10 −$4 -41%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? May 01 $0 $0 +147%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $303 +$153 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 29? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 30 $65 +$46 +70%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $488 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 28? Apr 29 $2 +$7 +461%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on April 28? Apr 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 28? Apr 28 $2 +$20 +1009%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $35 +$9 +27%
GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22? Apr 22 $174 −$52 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on April 21? Apr 21 $75 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Apr 21 $192 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 21? Apr 21 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21? Apr 21 $66 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 21? Apr 21 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ap Apr 18 $270 +$26 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 18 $508 +$27 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 17? Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 16? Apr 18 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Apr 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ap Apr 18 $99 +$1 +1%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 16? Apr 17 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 15? Apr 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C or below on April 15? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on April 15? Apr 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on April 15? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 19h
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 19h
Will anyone say "Rick" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E5 S9? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 44h
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 2d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 32¢ $9 3d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 31¢ $3 3d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 5d
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 5d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? SELL Yes 55¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 6d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 6d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 13d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 14d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 14d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 14d
Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $16 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $24 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $24 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 15d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $45 16d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $4 23d
Will Evil Morty appear in Rick and Morty: Season 9? SELL No $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.61 · official $39.39 (match) · 1097 history records