Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8aa7…d19a crypto 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$211 (-15%) realized −$209 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%29W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$69
14 days+$69
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$311
sports 35% +$67
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.3% +8.0% 100% 50% +11.0%
≤30d 36 -13.0% -21.3% 50% 42% -9.4%
≤90d 63 -24.8% -32.0% 46% 40% -27.8%
all 63 -24.8% -32.0% 46% 40% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 40% -27.8%
10% -38.5% 37% -34.7%
15% -44.4% 22% -41.0%
20% -49.9% 14% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses29 / 34
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage33d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 58¢ 58¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $101 +$38 +37%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 31 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 31 $10 −$5 -48%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +27%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $5 +$15 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 31 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 30 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 30 $11 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $17 +$13 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $8 +$3 +31%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 29 $17 −$8 -48%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $8 +$22 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 29 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $8 −$8 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 21 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 21 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 37m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 58¢ $101 37m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $139 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $122 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $101 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 2h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $101 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 21d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 21d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 21d
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.86 · official $197.86 (match) · 112 history records