Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8aa7…25a2 politics 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%11W / 23L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$4
politics 21% $0
crypto 17% $0
other 14% +$1
sports 10% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.6% -8.1% 60% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 6 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 0% -7.8%
all 34 +2.5% -7.2% 32% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 3% -8.9%
10% -16.1% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.2 per $1 lost it wins $7.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses11 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage250d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $54 +$2 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 20 $2 +$1 +74%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on October 31? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 17 $9 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Oct 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $22 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $37 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $45 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $41 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $33 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $8 9d
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 96¢ $25 240d
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 96¢ $25 241d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $25 241d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $25 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records