Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8A 0x8aa6…f015 crypto 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+21%) realized +$262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%7W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$257
other 39% +$84
sports 19% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +28.3%
≤30d 7 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +28.3%
≤90d 7 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +28.3%
all 7 +49.7% +35.4% 100% 100% +28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.4% 100% +28.3%
10% +22.5% 86% +16.1%
15% +10.6% 57% +4.8%
20% -0.2% 57% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses7 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$69 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 +$87 +86%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $142 +$97 +68%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $211 +$71 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $205 +$117 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $272 +$30 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $221 +$53 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $172 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 49m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $188 55m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $239 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $282 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $142 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 95¢ $110 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $302 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $272 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $274 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $221 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records