Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8aa2…e205 politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% −$18
economics 9% −$1
tech 8% −$1
other 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$913) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage95d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $55 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $1,033 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 14 $896 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO May 14 $58 $0 -0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $894 −$7 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $914 −$2 -0%
Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? May 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $913 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $154 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $1,063 32m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 40m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 46m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,026 55m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,031 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $1,033 2h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $20 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 44d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 44d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 44d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 44d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $894 46d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $58 46d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $21 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $872 46d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $12 46d
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 46d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $25 46d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $24 46d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $695 46d
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records