Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8aa2…5a0b
weather · 288 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22,353 -64%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22,326 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$22,326
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses171 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)632 / 288
History coverage16d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day202.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 632 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23,381
7 days−$22,471
14 days−$22,543
30 days−$22,326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 48¢ 43¢ $66 $60 −$6 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $81 $56 −$25 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 50¢ 50¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 46¢ 36¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? No 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 4¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? No 39¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 1? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 30? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23? No 69¢ 0¢ $395 $0 −$395 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 3? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 11? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? No 65¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? No 66¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29? No 27¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 7? No 81¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22? No 45¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? Jun 13 $163 −$163 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 13 $395 −$395 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 3? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 8? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on April 18? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 7? Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 22 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 13 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 13 $209 −$209 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 16? Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 11? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 6? Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Jun 13 $232 −$232 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 8? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 1? Jun 13 $599 −$599 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 7? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 14 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ap Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ap Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 6? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 3? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on April 18 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ap Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on May 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 3? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 16? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 13 Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 10 Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 2? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$1,120
tech 1% −$306
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 52¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 17¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 48¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 47¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 47¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 46¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 80¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 15¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 88¢ $7 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 87¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 87¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 499 -71.1% -73.9% 18% 16% -60.5%
≤30d 632 -54.3% -58.6% 27% 24% -44.4%
≤90d 632 -54.3% -58.6% 27% 24% -44.4%
all 632 -54.3% -58.6% 27% 24% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover202.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.6% 24% -44.4%
10% ← realistic here -62.6% 17% -49.7%
15% -66.2% 11% -54.5%
20% -69.5% 8% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.64 · official $173.64 (match) · 3500 history records