Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8aa1…c711 other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,812 (+1%) realized +$1,812 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%38W / 137L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,143per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$10
30 days−$331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$151
politics 31% −$82
sports 11% +$2,013
world 3% +$8
culture 3% −$8
economics 3% +$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 45 -10.5% -19.0% 7% 2% -10.1%
≤90d 104 -3.9% -13.0% 5% 2% -8.8%
all 175 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 13% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% -8.7%
10% -17.9% 13% -17.5%
15% -25.9% 9% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,562) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$7 · ×10.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.9 per $1 lost it wins $2.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$1,812
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses38 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,143
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $157 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $3,243 −$3 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $369 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $389 +$2 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $358 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $369 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $6,092 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $542 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,076 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,125 −$4 -0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $67 +$20 +31%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $320 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $348 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $267 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,332 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,919 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,529 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,303 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $1,481 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,905 −$2 -0%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,446 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $3,084 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 3h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 46h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $369 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $512 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $513 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $357 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $358 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $369 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $339 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $339 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $277 4d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $277 5d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $266 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $266 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $315 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $315 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $157 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $505 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $506 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $449 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $449 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $404 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $405 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $389 10d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $389 10d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $541 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.99 · official $156.99 (match) · 645 history records