Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8aa1…2242 sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$288 (-2%) realized −$362 · open +$74
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$147
14 days+$551
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$522
other 29% +$236
crypto 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 44% +12.8%
≤30d 99 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -12.7%
≤90d 99 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -12.7%
all 99 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 41% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 41% -12.7%
10% -21.6% 41% -21.1%
15% -29.2% 41% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 37% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$95 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized−$362
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 57
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions2
Markets (closed)99 / 101
History coverage21d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 46¢ 65¢ $100 $141 +$41 (+41%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 62¢ 82¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $76 +$104 +137%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$37 -72%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $99 +$69 +70%
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Hussey (+1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$70 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $46 +$24 +52%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$18 +180%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $13 −$13 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $23 +$20 +86%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $45 −$21 -48%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $109 +$89 +82%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $202 +$9 +4%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $294 −$180 -61%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $202 −$42 -21%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$55 -54%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $304 −$134 -44%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $102 −$60 -59%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $101 +$63 +62%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $202 +$117 +58%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $345 +$322 +93%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$158 +155%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$12 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +82%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $103 +$843 +820%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 46¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 62¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 8h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $14 15h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 41¢ $76 15h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $10 15h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 15h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 15h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $10 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $168 17h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $99 18h
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Hussey (+1.5) BUY Arnaldi 59¢ $71 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante 100¢ $71 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 65¢ $46 25h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 37¢ $13 39h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 39h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $10 39h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 39h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 41h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $23 41h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $45 42h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 41¢ $97 7d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $101 7d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 60¢ $198 7d
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 32¢ $109 8d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 47¢ $102 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $211 8d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $72 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.56 · official $273.56 (match) · 173 history records