Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a98…1b92
world · 81 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$18,533 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,289 · open +$931
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$47,367
Realized+$11,289
Unrealized+$931
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses27 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions117
Markets (closed)77 / 81
Avg bet$2,466
Trades / day3497.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 117 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,289
7 days+$11,289
14 days+$11,289
30 days+$11,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,700 $2,715 +$15 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $2,217 $2,230 +$13 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,974 $1,987 +$12 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 81¢ 88¢ $1,620 $1,750 +$130 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $1,675 $1,727 +$52 (+3%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $1,597 $1,702 +$105 (+7%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,683 $1,680 −$3 (-0%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1,563 $1,617 +$54 (+3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $1,651 $1,577 −$74 (-4%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $1,471 $1,432 −$39 (-3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 41¢ 78¢ $745 $1,424 +$679 (+91%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $1,109 $1,302 +$193 (+17%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 66¢ $1,494 $1,291 −$204 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1,100 $1,092 −$8 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 44¢ 56¢ $849 $1,077 +$229 (+27%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 29¢ 52¢ $578 $1,052 +$474 (+82%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $969 $993 +$24 (+2%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $938 $989 +$51 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 54¢ $995 $950 −$45 (-5%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $892 $882 −$10 (-1%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $785 $787 +$2 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Yes 45¢ 47¢ $710 $747 +$37 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 50¢ 62¢ $581 $714 +$133 (+23%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $707 $698 −$9 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 84¢ $656 $676 +$20 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$3 -429%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $6 −$319 -5589%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -102%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $313 −$1,067 -340%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$183 +1364%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 12 $12 −$701 -5714%
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $17 −$15 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -2729%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $19 −$126 -651%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $686 −$2,883 -420%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 12 $21 −$29 -138%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -176%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? Jun 12 $315 −$316 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 12 $30 −$691 -2302%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? Jun 12 $393 −$771 -196%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$301 -307%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$42 -2145%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 12 $22 −$30 -134%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? Jun 12 $21 −$1,072 -5012%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$132 -1203%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 12 $0 +$32 +11406%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? Jun 12 $19 +$82 +435%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$11 +13%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? Jun 12 $53 −$53 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$990 -12682%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$679 +3897%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$42 -212%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 12 $42 −$111 -267%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 12 $3 −$1,082 -35444%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $64 −$43 -68%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 12 $369 −$405 -110%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $18 +$194 +1081%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $4 −$961 -27284%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? Jun 12 $69 −$71 -102%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 12 $9 −$305 -3485%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 12 $42 −$20 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? Jun 12 $6 −$162 -2693%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$8 -169%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $69 +$2,185 +3183%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,065 −$93 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,151 +$2,186 +190%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6,992 +$2,040 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 89% +$23,137
other 10% +$633
politics 0% −$12
finance 0% +$10
weather 0% +$100
tech 0% +$4
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 0m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $4 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $11 1m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $4 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $28 3m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 52¢ $3 4m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $14 5m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $7 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $57 5m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 52¢ $3 5m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 5m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $212 6m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $98 6m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $4 6m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $12 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $918 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 21¢ $2 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $154 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 7m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 7m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 8m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 8m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 8m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 8m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $39 9m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $58 9m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $49 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+109.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +131.0% +109.0% 35% 30% +20.7%
≤30d 77 +131.0% +109.0% 35% 30% +20.7%
≤90d 77 +131.0% +109.0% 35% 30% +20.7%
all 77 +131.0% +109.0% 35% 30% +20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3497.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +109.0% 30% +20.7%
10% +89.0% 26% +9.2%
15% ← realistic here +70.7% 23% -1.4%
20% +54.0% 22% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,366.92 · official $47,365.43 (match) · 3500 history records