Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a97…593d other 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41,568 (+7%) realized +$43,590 · open −$2,022
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate75%117W / 40L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$3,657per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$20,481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 58d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$16,288
crypto 48% +$1,229
world 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -31.8% -38.3% 56% 4% -9.7%
≤30d 91 +13.5% +2.7% 70% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 157 +9.7% -0.8% 75% 8% -6.7%
all 157 +9.7% -0.8% 75% 8% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 8% -6.7%
10% -10.3% 3% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -18.9% 3% -23.8%
20% -26.9% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$4,875) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$104 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.55 per $1 lost it wins $5.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$20,481
Realized+$43,590
Unrealized−$2,022
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses117 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)157 / 172
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$3,657
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $5,334 $6,226 +$891 (+17%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $3,075 $3,256 +$181 (+6%)
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $2,208 $2,414 +$206 (+9%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $2,260 $2,149 −$111 (-5%)
Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 86¢ 91¢ $1,510 $1,585 +$76 (+5%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1,258 $1,331 +$73 (+6%)
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 72¢ $629 $805 +$176 (+28%)
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $795 $601 −$194 (-24%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $272 $346 +$74 (+27%)
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $327 $296 −$30 (-9%)
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 63¢ 6¢ $2,756 $278 −$2,479 (-90%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 70¢ $232 $276 +$45 (+19%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $101 $158 +$57 (+56%)
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $141 $146 +$5 (+3%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 42¢ $183 $126 −$57 (-31%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 56¢ 64¢ $97 $111 +$14 (+14%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $72 $100 +$28 (+40%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $98 $89 −$9 (-9%)
Over $1M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 40¢ 6¢ $533 $74 −$459 (-86%)
Over $500k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 65¢ 6¢ $557 $47 −$510 (-92%)
Will Ritual launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 72¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+81%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 16¢ 74¢ $2 $8 +$7 (+352%)
Arc FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $24 $5 −$19 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lighter Airdrop on December 31? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 17 $99 −$93 -94%
No airdrop in 2025? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 19? Jun 17 $2 −$35 -1734%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 1 Jun 17 $0 −$7 -12288%
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 17 $48 −$43 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$103 -129%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $8,037 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $181 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $461 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,990 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $3,255 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5,244 +$28 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5,025 +$55 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3,992 +$31 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,512 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4,403 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1,696 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1,708 −$12 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $15,292 +$35 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $685 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $446 −$17 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,629 +$62 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,913 +$10 +0%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $469 +$95 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $488 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8,222 +$86 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,394 +$21 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4,401 $0 -0%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 10 $194 +$99 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $319 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,741 −$47 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $949 −$6 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,446 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,364 +$56 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6,227 +$22 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7,043 +$124 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $8,937 +$36 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,078 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3,395 +$7 +0%
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 07 $78 −$21 -27%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1? Jun 07 $10,012 +$51 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $4,024 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,936 −$42 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $503 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11,952 +$24 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $6,334 +$39 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $40 48m
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 53m
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $64 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $328 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 90¢ $450 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $360 1h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 92¢ $734 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $526 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $509 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,722 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 86¢ $232 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 94¢ $361 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 62¢ $96 2h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 3h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 3h
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $52 3h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $288 3h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 4h
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,481.04 · official $20,482.44 (match) · 3500 history records