Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a92…8586 crypto 1301 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,089 (+220%) realized +$8,089 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%379W / 922L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$895
7 days+$1,120
14 days+$1,084
30 days+$1,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2,802
sports 26% +$1,618
crypto 12% −$65
politics 5% +$1,326
finance 5% −$68
culture 4% +$776
world 3% +$14
tech 3% +$1,187
economics 2% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +442.5% +390.8% 59% 59% +327.8%
≤30d 48 +265.7% +230.8% 60% 60% +156.4%
≤90d 263 +275.0% +239.3% 74% 74% +193.9%
all 1301 +54.7% +40.0% 29% 29% +135.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.0% 29% +135.3%
10% +26.6% 28% +112.8%
15% +14.4% 27% +92.2%
20% +3.2% 26% +73.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +298% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +211% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late +168% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$2 · ×14.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.06 per $1 lost it wins $6.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses379 / 922
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1301 / 1301
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1301 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? Jun 17 $14 +$76 +540%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $0 +$2 +3233%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +815%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $14 +$68 +483%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $7 +$16 +225%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $28 +$760 +2715%
Will Ibanez be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $7 +$26 +371%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $14 +$70 +497%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $21 +$213 +1017%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $7 +$19 +275%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $1 +$3 +252%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $7 +$15 +218%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 08 $2 +$5 +258%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $0 +$1 +265%
Vanraure Hachinohe FC leading at halftime? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Tochigi SC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $7 +$45 +650%
Slovakia leading at halftime? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.2M in April? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 03 $28 −$28 -100%
Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $7 +$19 +276%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $450-$460 on the final day of trading o May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440-$450 on the final day of trading o May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 2 - 0 Bay FC? May 30 $1 +$3 +221%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 3 - 1 Bay FC? May 30 $1 +$3 +221%
Exact Score: Orlando Pride 2 - 2 Bay FC? May 29 $1 +$3 +221%
Egypt vs. Russia: O/U 2.5 May 28 $7 +$17 +237%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $7 +$38 +538%
Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5 May 26 $5 +$27 +597%
Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5) May 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Yokohama F·Marinos leading at halftime? May 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will CS Huancayo vs. CS Cienciano end in a draw? May 24 $7 +$16 +221%
Exact Score: Zhejiang Zhiye FC 0 - 2 Liaoning Tieren FC? May 24 $2 +$9 +556%
Will Aoi Yuki as Maomao (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win Best Ani May 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Kawkab AC 2 - 2 COD Meknès? May 23 $0 +$1 +318%
ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 0.5 May 22 $7 +$16 +225%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $0 +$3 +625%
Spread: FC Utrecht (-2.5) May 21 $7 +$21 +296%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC leading at halftime? May 20 $6 +$15 +233%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 May 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-2.5) May 17 $0 +$2 +614%
Will the Eurovision 2026 margin of victory be 150 points or greater? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? SELL No 99¢ $40 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? BUY No 15¢ $7 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers winning after 5 innings? BUY No 16¢ $7 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $0 4h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $2 24h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $4 24h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $7 24h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $9 24h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $5 24h
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? SELL No 92¢ $6 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $82 26h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL No 91¢ $23 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 26h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 28¢ $7 26h
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? BUY No 10¢ $1 27h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $0 29h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 17¢ $3 29h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL Yes 99¢ $479 32h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL Yes 99¢ $309 32h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes $7 32h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 32h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 32h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes $7 32h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No $0 2d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No $7 2d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 15¢ $7 2d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 15¢ $9 2d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 28¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records