Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a8c…d78b crypto 1736 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$181 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate83%1438W / 298L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$1
14 days−$80
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 157 +0.3% -9.2% 92% 15% -9.6%
≤30d 862 -1.7% -11.0% 80% 14% -10.2%
≤90d 1736 -0.7% -10.1% 83% 19% -9.4%
all 1736 -0.7% -10.1% 83% 19% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 19% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 7% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1438 / 298
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1736 / 1736
History coverage63d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1736 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records