Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:21:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a8c…1991 sports 558 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,344 (-4%) realized −$2,331 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%307W / 245L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$824est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$155
14 days+$95
30 days−$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,610
other 8% −$514
crypto 5% −$393
world 1% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.4% -4.6% 57% 57% +5.9%
≤30d 190 -12.8% -21.1% 49% 42% -11.1%
≤90d 552 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 48% -13.7%
all 552 -1.6% -11.0% 56% 48% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 48% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -22.0%
15% -27.3% 27% -29.5%
20% -34.4% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$58 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$2,331
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses307 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$824
Open positions3
Markets (closed)552 / 558
History coverage66d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 552 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 38¢ $48 $38 −$10 (-22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$11 +37%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $48 +$12 +24%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$4 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $36 +$14 +39%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $38 +$11 +30%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $96 $0 -0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $94 +$81 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $159 +$72 +45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $62 +$34 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$42 +72%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$5 -4%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $42 −$2 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $257 −$58 -23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $418 +$58 +14%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $76 −$48 -63%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $511 −$98 -19%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $107 −$17 -16%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $308 −$156 -51%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$9 -21%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$5 -8%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $129 +$73 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $80 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $61 +$39 +64%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $232 −$127 -55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $225 +$17 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $124 +$4 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $140 +$48 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $232 −$232 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $170 +$42 +25%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $219 −$195 -89%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $72 −$1 -1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $78 +$17 +22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $212 +$130 +61%
Game Handicap: DK (-2.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+2.5) Jun 06 $205 −$74 -36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $64 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $305 −$305 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $140 +$147 +105%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $95 +$44 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $60 +$34 +57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $195 +$109 +56%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $148 +$48 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $113 +$35 +30%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $83 +$29 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $48 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 67¢ $30 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 67¢ $40 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 56¢ $51 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 14h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL 67¢ $60 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $10 17h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 52¢ $38 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL 46¢ $46 17h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $38 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 23h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $47 24h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $2 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 96¢ $96 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $38 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $36 26h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $50 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 60¢ $71 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 37h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $55 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $30 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $19 37h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $45 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.30 · official $209.97 · 2968 history records