Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8A 0x8a8b…6f0b sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$465 (+29%) realized +$425 · open +$40
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR84%break-even
Win rate84%26W / 5L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$241
14 days+$403
30 days+$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$249
sports 45% +$124
crypto 6% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +84%
net ROI/market (all)+46.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +49.3% +35.1% 93% 93% +18.2%
≤30d 31 +61.9% +46.5% 84% 84% +22.7%
≤90d 31 +61.9% +46.5% 84% 84% +22.7%
all 31 +61.9% +46.5% 84% 84% +22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.5% 84% +22.7%
10% +32.5% 74% +11.0%
15% +19.7% 52% +0.2%
20% +8.0% 42% -9.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +76% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×6.0 per $1 lost it wins $6.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized+$425
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses26 / 5
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage14d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $352 $348 −$4 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 58¢ 97¢ $62 $104 +$42 (+68%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 76¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $262 +$93 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$32 +32%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$9 +35%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$16 +78%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$16 +32%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 +$7 +27%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 +$21 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $114 +$53 +47%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $1 +$2 +225%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $90 −$36 -40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +61%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$12 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +145%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +45%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +248%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $15 +$13 +85%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$10 +205%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 15 $58 +$16 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$64 +411%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $12 +$19 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $104 1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $102 2h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $211 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $10 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $10 23h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 86¢ $20 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $5 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $25 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $51 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $25 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 75¢ $30 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $20 4d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 75¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $8 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 98¢ $16 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $5 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $6 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $13 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $13 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $5 5d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 30¢ $1 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 82¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.41 · official $484.41 (match) · 93 history records