Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a8b…11d7 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,463 (-31%) realized −$1,507 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,465
world 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -57.4% -61.5% 15% 15% -41.2%
≤30d 13 -57.4% -61.5% 15% 15% -41.2%
≤90d 13 -57.4% -61.5% 15% 15% -41.2%
all 13 -57.4% -61.5% 15% 15% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.5% 15% -41.2%
10% -65.1% 15% -46.8%
15% -68.5% 15% -51.9%
20% -71.6% 15% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$673 vs −$260 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$1,507
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $254 −$250 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $570 −$560 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $253 −$195 -77%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $255 −$232 -91%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $903 −$890 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $199 −$195 -98%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $207 −$8 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $684 +$791 +116%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $163 −$160 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $508 +$556 +109%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $203 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $203 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $244 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $254 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $570 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $59 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3¢ $23 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $255 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $253 16h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $397 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $199 27h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 37¢ $199 27h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $207 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $506 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $163 31h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $176 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $102 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $507 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 27¢ $35 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $508 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $443.78 · official $443.78 (match) · 22 history records