Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a89…27c9 other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 233L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$36
sports 24% −$19
culture 8% −$9
economics 7% −$3
politics 6% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 169 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage139d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $359 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $655 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $798 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $288 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $729 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $260 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $432 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $577 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $387 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $255 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $248 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $367 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $289 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $527 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $539 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 16m
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $70 3h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $70 5h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $70 13h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $70 14h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $70 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $70 17h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $70 22h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $71 24h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 25h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 28h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $71 28h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $71 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $71 31h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $71 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 37h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 38h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 39h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $71 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $71 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $71 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $71 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $72 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $72 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1405 history records