Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8a83…4e60 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+1%) realized +$160 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate89%239W / 31L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$23
14 days+$127
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$62
other 13% −$13
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -6.4% -15.3% 85% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 182 -3.9% -13.0% 87% 12% -9.6%
≤90d 270 -2.0% -11.3% 89% 10% -9.0%
all 270 -2.0% -11.3% 89% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 10% -9.0%
10% -19.8% 5% -17.7%
15% -27.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses239 / 31
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions5
Markets (closed)270 / 275
History coverage44d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 75¢ $221 $170 −$51 (-23%)
Rani Khedira: 2+ assists No 99¢ 50¢ $68 $34 −$34 (-49%)
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 2+ assists No 99¢ 50¢ $67 $34 −$33 (-49%)
Will New England Revolution vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-07? No 58¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Yan Diomandé: 2+ assists Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Franck Kessié: 2+ assists Jun 15 $57 +$1 +3%
Enner Valencia: 2+ assists Jun 15 $35 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $135 +$1 +1%
Hiroki Itō: 2+ assists Jun 15 $63 +$1 +2%
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists Jun 14 $57 +$1 +1%
Ao Tanaka: 2+ assists Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Gervane Kastaneer: 2+ assists Jun 14 $70 +$3 +4%
Juninho Bacuna: 2+ assists Jun 14 $57 +$1 +2%
Sontje Hansen: 2+ assists Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Tyrese Noslin: 2+ assists Jun 14 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Jürgen Locadia: 2+ assists Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Jacob Italiano: 2+ assists Jun 14 $100 +$1 +2%
Harry Souttar: 2+ assists Jun 14 $130 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Dominique Simon: 2+ goals Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $250 +$8 +3%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals Jun 14 $71 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $250 +$1 +1%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $301 +$20 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Isidro Pitta: 3+ goals Jun 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $270 +$2 +1%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $27 +$1 +4%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $290 +$2 +1%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $196 +$4 +2%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $155 −$62 -40%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $145 +$6 +4%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $200 +$8 +4%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Fiji vs. Vanuatu end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $30 +$3 +10%
Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $200 +$4 +2%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 -26%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $1 $0 -25%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
RS Berkane vs. IR Tanger: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $150 +$3 +2%
FathUnionSport vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $177 +$3 +2%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $100 +$3 +4%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $258 −$28 -11%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $55 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $121 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $98 2h
Mortadha Ben Ouanes: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $67 2h
Rani Khedira: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $68 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 100¢ $136 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 99¢ $135 2h
Franck Kessié: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $57 4h
Enner Valencia: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $35 4h
Yan Diomandé: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $120 5h
Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $72 7h
Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists BUY No 99¢ $57 7h
Hiroki Itō: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $63 7h
Ao Tanaka: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $150 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $33 8h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $32 15h
Gervane Kastaneer: 2+ assists BUY No 96¢ $70 19h
Sontje Hansen: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $55 19h
Jürgen Locadia: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $50 19h
Juninho Bacuna: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $57 19h
Tyrese Noslin: 2+ assists BUY No 97¢ $72 19h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? SELL No 100¢ $100 21h
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
Harry Souttar: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $130 24h
Jacob Italiano: 2+ assists BUY No 98¢ $100 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 97¢ $250 26h
Dominique Simon: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $70 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? SELL No 100¢ $252 27h
Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 99¢ $250 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240.71 · official $240.71 (match) · 588 history records