Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a83…f2ed sports 314 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$553 (+5%) realized +$602 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%114W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$512now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days+$483
14 days+$554
30 days+$603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$493
other 16% +$74
crypto 6% −$131
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +23.2% +11.5% 33% 33% +13.7%
≤30d 135 +20.9% +9.4% 40% 39% -2.2%
≤90d 251 -7.8% -16.6% 32% 31% -7.1%
all 304 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 37% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 37% -4.9%
10% -14.0% 35% -14.0%
15% -22.3% 35% -22.3%
20% -29.9% 34% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$512
Realized+$602
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses114 / 190
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions10
Markets (closed)304 / 314
History coverage127d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $199 $163 −$36 (-18%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 27¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+19%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Mexico 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $27 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $19 $6 −$13 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 −$37 -84%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 −$34 -66%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 +$119 +325%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$104 +291%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$33 -74%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 +$131 +442%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $28 +$52 +188%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $16 −$9 -54%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $52 −$51 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 −$14 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 −$79 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $55 +$54 +100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$48 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $58 +$226 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $166 +$276 +166%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $28 +$76 +276%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 −$22 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 $0 -1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$13 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 +$73 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 −$20 -44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -25%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$34 +64%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$56 +550%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $14 +$18 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $37 −$21 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $88 +$147 +168%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $32 −$6 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 59m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $41 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 22¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $112 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 8¢ $6 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $16 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $9 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $17 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $8 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $36 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $51 9h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $37 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $36 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $28 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $30 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 12¢ $29 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 30h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $40 30h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 9¢ $7 43h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 43h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 6¢ $26 43h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $41 43h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $14 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.12 · official $512.12 (match) · 806 history records