Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a81…a86b sports 1517 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,465 (-3%) realized −$3,368 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%929W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$515est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$363
7 days−$363
14 days−$363
30 days−$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$5,010
other 4% +$394
world 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -96.1% -96.5% 3% 3% -91.7%
≤30d 31 -96.1% -96.5% 3% 3% -91.7%
≤90d 1250 -15.4% -23.4% 57% 56% -18.1%
all 1541 -9.2% -17.8% 60% 60% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 60% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 51% -21.9%
15% -32.9% 33% -29.4%
20% -39.4% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$49 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$3,368
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses929 / 612
Est. fees paid−$515
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1541 / 1517
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Under 52¢ 62¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 20¢ $90 $23 −$67 (-75%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 38¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 51¢ 16¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-69%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 7¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 379 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mansfield Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Fulham FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-03-06? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-05? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Adelaide United FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$10 -198%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
FK Oleksandriya vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Everton FC (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
FC Schalke 04 vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
FK Oleksandriya vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 +$6 +20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 −$30 -40%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 1.5 May 12 $22 −$22 -99%
1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava: O/U 1.5 May 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: Both Teams to Score May 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 1.5 May 12 $19 +$9 +46%
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5 May 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 May 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $4 +$3 +89%
FK Dinamo Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 2.5 May 11 $12 +$5 +40%
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 11 $5 +$3 +62%
FK Dinamo Moskva vs. FK Krasnodar: O/U 1.5 May 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 May 10 $19 −$19 -99%
CD Mirandés vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 10 $10 +$5 +46%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5 May 10 $8 −$8 -99%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $30 12m
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $30 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $30 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $83 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 4h
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 38d
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 38d
1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 38d
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $4 38d
1. FC Slovácko vs. FC Baník Ostrava: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 38d
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 38d
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 38d
Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 38d
Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $9 38d
Gwangju FC vs. FC Seoul: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $10 38d
Gangwon FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 38d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 39d
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 39d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $7 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.13 · official $79.13 (match) · 3500 history records