Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a81…c266 weather 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$69 (-30%) realized −$68 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%64W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% −$26
crypto 26% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +16.2% +5.2% 67% 67% -21.3%
≤30d 52 +16.6% +5.5% 69% 69% -21.7%
≤90d 121 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 50% -39.3%
all 121 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 50% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -39.3%
10% -22.6% 37% -45.1%
15% -30.1% 27% -50.4%
20% -37.0% 21% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$68
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses64 / 57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)121 / 126
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? No 75¢ 77¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? No 70¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? No 77¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? No 64¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 03 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? May 31 $1 $0 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1? May 30 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 30? May 30 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 74¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 75¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.95 · official $3.26 · 460 history records