Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a80…063e crypto 510 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-2%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%273W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days−$401
14 days−$383
30 days−$842
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$616
sports 1% +$2
weather 0% −$8
other 0% −$19
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 43% -21.8%
≤30d 405 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 48% -14.9%
≤90d 510 +6.5% -3.6% 54% 51% -12.8%
all 510 +6.5% -3.6% 54% 51% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 51% -12.8%
10% -12.9% 49% -21.1%
15% -21.3% 46% -28.8%
20% -29.0% 44% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses273 / 237
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)510 / 510
History coverage37d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 510 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $138 +$242 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $90 +$49 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$133 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$45 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$32 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $47 +$12 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$20 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $273 −$254 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $117 −$113 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $122 +$100 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$57 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$47 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$50 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$28 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$40 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$23 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$17 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $381 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $47 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $40 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $22 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $23 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $273 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $117 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $122 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1089 history records