Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a80…11c5 sports 174 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1604 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,004 (-1%) realized +$2,387 · open −$3,391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 91L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day1603.6pace
Fees−$738est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$15,215
other 16% +$2,511
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1604 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 32% -30.5%
≤30d 147 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 32% -30.5%
≤90d 147 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 32% -30.5%
all 147 -34.4% -40.6% 38% 32% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1603.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 32% -30.5%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 26% -37.1%
15% -51.5% 17% -43.2%
20% -56.3% 11% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -21% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$190 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7,957
Realized+$2,387
Unrealized−$3,391
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$738
Open positions27
Markets (closed)147 / 174
History coverage2d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day1603.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland New Zealand 68¢ 100¢ $2,014 $2,982 +$968 (+48%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs OG 60¢ 100¢ $1,013 $1,688 +$675 (+67%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets New York Mets 50¢ 51¢ $389 $399 +$9 (+2%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Sri Lanka 77¢ 72¢ $386 $358 −$28 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner 9INE 43¢ 57¢ $245 $324 +$80 (+33%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner ECHO 66¢ 90¢ $199 $270 +$71 (+36%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Sashi Esport 46¢ 42¢ $231 $214 −$18 (-8%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Rune Eaters 48¢ 34¢ $292 $208 −$84 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 59¢ 73¢ $144 $177 +$33 (+23%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs MODUS 34¢ 66¢ $70 $135 +$65 (+93%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner ECHO 79¢ 100¢ $101 $128 +$27 (+27%)
Plovdiv: Gabriele Piraino vs Lorenzo Angelini Lorenzo Angelini 32¢ 100¢ $38 $120 +$82 (+214%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 37¢ 27¢ $166 $120 −$46 (-28%)
ITF Tarvisio: Maria Toma vs Diletta Cherubini Maria Toma 67¢ 100¢ $77 $116 +$38 (+50%)
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Thailand vs Singapore Singapore 90¢ 100¢ $99 $110 +$11 (+11%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Janice Tjen vs Caty McNally Caty McNally 75¢ 100¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+33%)
ITF Monastir: Anna Donnell vs Eva Lopez Anna Donnell 86¢ 100¢ $67 $78 +$11 (+16%)
ITF Bakio: Mikel Martinez vs Bernardo Munk Mesa Bernardo Munk Mesa 57¢ 99¢ $43 $74 +$31 (+72%)
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 74¢ 100¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+35%)
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kia Tigers 94¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+7%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins LG Twins 89¢ 100¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Miguel Damas 56¢ 56¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B ECHO 68¢ 95¢ $29 $40 +$11 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Sashi Esport 57¢ 100¢ $22 $38 +$16 (+74%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 74¢ 100¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 23 $54 +$7 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 23 $33 +$17 +52%
ITF Kayseri: Vladimir Osminkin vs Aldin Setkic Jun 23 $26 +$8 +32%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $30 −$19 -63%
Valorant: Crest Gaming Zst vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $32 −$5 -17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $62 −$58 -93%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $112 −$53 -48%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Gro Jun 23 $100 −$18 -18%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $62 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $437 −$29 -7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $437 −$312 -71%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $410 −$204 -50%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs AM Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $681 −$340 -50%
ITF Monastir: Kristina Penickova vs Sofia Avataneo Jun 23 $1,100 −$156 -14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $48 +$52 +107%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $42 −$42 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamish Stewart Jun 23 $19 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $41 +$19 +47%
ITF Bergamo: Seydina Andre vs Louis Larue Jun 23 $26 −$24 -93%
ITF Galati: Lavinia Luciano vs Simona Ogescu Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Tarvisio: Alessandra Mazzola vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 23 $48 +$35 +75%
Plovdiv: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Petr Nesterov Jun 23 $27 +$9 +32%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $243 +$109 +45%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $227 −$142 -62%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $715 +$282 +39%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $45 −$8 -17%
Targu Mures: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 23 $76 +$37 +48%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $19 −$8 -45%
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $28 +$9 +32%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $48 −$47 -98%
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 23 $67 −$18 -27%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Targu Mures: Michele Ribecai vs Niels McDonald Jun 23 $53 −$53 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $2,114 +$1,063 +50%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1,336 −$244 -18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $554 +$395 +71%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 23 $441 −$432 -98%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Yen-Ni Chiang Jun 23 $43 +$7 +16%
T20 Asia Pacific Champions Trophy: Uzbekistan vs Indonesia Jun 23 $12 −$11 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $333 −$180 -54%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $359 −$157 -44%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $931 −$296 -32%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7,002 −$153 -2%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,163 −$745 -64%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$29 +98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $213 −$170 -80%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1,253 −$909 -73%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $440 −$24 -6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 78¢ $79 0m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $2 0m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $75 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $78 1m
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal BUY Mili Poljicak 45¢ $5 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $78 1m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 77¢ $78 1m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 72¢ $25 2m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 46¢ $22 3m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 45¢ $5 3m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 43¢ $26 3m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 22¢ $17 5m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 43¢ $44 6m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 31¢ $32 6m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $25 6m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 52¢ $53 7m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $51 7m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 51¢ $1 8m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 53¢ $21 9m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 61¢ $15 9m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 57¢ $58 9m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 28¢ $18 11m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 36¢ $37 13m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 35¢ $11 14m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 33¢ $4 14m
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan BUY Miguel Damas 48¢ $14 17m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 58¢ $17 18m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 43¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 45¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 45¢ $2 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,956.51 · official $7,978.41 (match) · 3254 history records