Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8a80…2ab4 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$2 (+9%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$2
sports 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +43.1% +29.5% 57% 57% +10.5%
≤30d 7 +43.1% +29.5% 57% 57% +10.5%
≤90d 7 +43.1% +29.5% 57% 57% +10.5%
all 7 +43.1% +29.5% 57% 57% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 57% +10.5%
10% +17.1% 57% -0.1%
15% +5.8% 43% -9.8%
20% -4.6% 43% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +246%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 82¢ $6 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.97 · official $2.97 (match) · 17 history records