Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a7d…4ac3 crypto 247 markets active 6d ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$854 (-8%) realized −$854 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate75%186W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$118
14 days−$124
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$945
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -39.9% -45.7% 50% 38% -56.3%
≤30d 109 -7.9% -16.7% 73% 42% -16.5%
≤90d 247 -8.4% -17.1% 75% 43% -17.4%
all 247 -8.4% -17.1% 75% 43% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -17.4%
10% -25.1% 23% -25.3%
15% -32.3% 11% -32.5%
20% -38.9% 6% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$37 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$854
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses186 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage74d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$19 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $41 +$22 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$39 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $41 +$25 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $112 −$58 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $121 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $61 +$20 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 03 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 03 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 03 $56 +$28 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 03 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 03 $62 +$60 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $76 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $71 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $61 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $61 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $60 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $62 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $41 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $24 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 516 history records