Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a79…2ff0 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 26L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$23
other 7% −$1
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 4% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 4% -7.1%
10% -18.8% 4% -16.0%
15% -26.7% 4% -24.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×170.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×22.71 per $1 lost it wins $22.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage569d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 09 $0 $0 -7%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -25%
Will Club Brugge win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $0 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Ducks vs. Jets Apr 17 $57 +$23 +41%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Apr 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 -13%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $1 $0 -17%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 24 $535 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 22d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 52d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 62d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 82d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 82d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $10 97d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $10 97d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $10 120d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 146d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 146d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 91¢ $10 183d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 183d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 217d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 217d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 235d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 235d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 266d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 268d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 305d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 305d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 339d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 339d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 339d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 339d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 372d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 373d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records