Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:08:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a74…ae2b sports 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$496 (-5%) realized −$336 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%111W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$317
7 days−$293
14 days−$181
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$442
other 8% −$384
crypto 4% +$28
world 3% −$15
tech 3% −$33
politics 1% +$77
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 20% -33.8%
≤30d 180 +15.1% +4.1% 41% 40% -13.6%
≤90d 273 +4.4% -5.5% 41% 40% -16.2%
all 273 +4.4% -5.5% 41% 40% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 40% -16.2%
10% -14.6% 39% -24.2%
15% -22.8% 37% -31.5%
20% -30.4% 37% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$30 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses111 / 162
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions7
Markets (closed)273 / 280
History coverage35d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 62¢ $3 $67 +$63 (+1958%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 56¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $26 $10 −$16 (-63%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $22 $1 −$21 (-96%)
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 0¢ $174 $0 −$173 (-100%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $161 −$158 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $190 −$186 -98%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $85 +$212 +250%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $108 +$384 +354%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $85 −$83 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $66 −$64 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $65 −$64 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $153 −$150 -98%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: William Grant vs Jeremy Schifris Jun 20 $12 $0 +4%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $51 +$60 +119%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $51 +$212 +420%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $51 +$56 +109%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $51 +$56 +109%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $47 +$78 +165%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $50 +$81 +162%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Valerio Aboian Jun 10 $51 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Ilkley: Yunchaokete Bu vs Chris Rodesch Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Tucuman: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $51 +$7 +14%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 10 $51 +$20 +40%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $49 −$48 -98%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $51 +$47 +93%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $51 +$84 +165%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $51 +$44 +88%
Tucuman: Ryan Dickerson vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 09 $45 −$44 -98%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 09 $51 +$51 +101%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $102 +$128 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $51 −$1 -2%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Daniella Britton Jun 08 $43 −$42 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $51 +$84 +165%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $49 −$49 -99%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 08 $50 −$49 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $51 +$42 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $332 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $14 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $661 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $161 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $21 33h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $164 33h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $190 34h
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $85 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $85 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $50 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $56 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $66 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $65 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $153 2d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 55¢ $51 12d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 51¢ $51 12d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $51 12d
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Henrique Rocha 55¢ $51 12d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez BUY Thiago Cigarran 19¢ $51 13d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY BOMBA Team 40¢ $51 13d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 45¢ $51 13d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $51 13d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova BUY Mia Pohankova 48¢ $51 13d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 37¢ $47 13d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 30¢ $51 13d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 47¢ $51 13d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 21¢ $49 14d
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Valerio Aboian BUY Thiago Cigarran 50¢ $51 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.40 · official $88.40 (match) · 610 history records