Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8A 0x8a72…d306 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$681 (-2%) realized −$674 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$838per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$480
sports 21% +$174
crypto 7% −$1,061
world 3% −$666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 48% -12.9%
≤30d 29 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 29 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 48% -12.9%
all 29 -13.0% -21.3% 52% 48% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 48% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 38% -21.3%
15% -35.7% 28% -28.9%
20% -42.0% 14% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,310) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$515 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$993
Realized−$674
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$838
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,843 +$766 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,487 +$583 +23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $660 −$34 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,120 +$175 +16%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,271 −$140 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2,030 +$241 +12%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1,310 +$718 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $736 +$367 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $761 −$552 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $676 −$666 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $492 +$56 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $741 −$734 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,056 −$1,050 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $535 −$531 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $573 +$244 +43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,303 −$604 -46%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $499 +$122 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,321 −$1,046 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026 Jun 14 $103 −$15 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $243 +$22 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,973 +$805 +41%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $660 +$721 +109%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $470 +$256 +54%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $606 +$646 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $343 −$245 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,857 +$426 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $834 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,843 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $626 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $626 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $568 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $660 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $1,227 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,293 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,295 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,120 11h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $2,132 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,271 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,271 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $2,030 12h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $2,029 12h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $1,101 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,103 13h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $210 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $209 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $736 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $761 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $129 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 14¢ $205 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $145 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $402 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $993.42 · official $1,043.42 · 76 history records