Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a6b…2f6a sports 1356 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,031 (-11%) realized −$2,022 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%480W / 872L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$373
other 19% −$1,193
politics 6% −$93
weather 4% −$394
world 3% −$71
crypto 1% +$13
culture 0% −$43
tech 0% −$7
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.1% -41.3% 40% 40% -28.6%
≤30d 217 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 44% -11.5%
≤90d 1234 -17.9% -25.8% 36% 36% -20.6%
all 1352 -18.9% -26.6% 36% 35% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 35% -20.2%
10% -33.6% 33% -27.8%
15% -40.1% 30% -34.8%
20% -45.9% 26% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$2,022
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses480 / 872
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1352 / 1356
History coverage412d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Over 52¢ 42¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries New York Liberty 46¢ 36¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $14 +$12 +88%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $15 +$5 +36%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $24 −$24 -99%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 06 $25 +$8 +33%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 +$9 +57%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 +$18 +180%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $27 −$26 -98%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 −$17 -98%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bolivia leading at halftime? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $10 +$7 +65%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $15 +$9 +57%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $5 +$21 +413%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $20 +$10 +49%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 +$28 +276%
Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Romania (-2.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Romania (-1.5) Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $31 −$2 -6%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $25 +$10 +41%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $30 +$15 +50%
Romania vs. Wales: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $30 +$27 +89%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $15 +$47 +307%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $31 +$38 +123%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $31 +$43 +139%
Spread: Cayman Islands (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$6 -97%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $20 +$17 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY New York Liberty 46¢ $14 1h
New York Liberty vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 92¢ $26 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $20 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Canada leading at halftime? BUY 26¢ $20 4h
Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $24 22d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $20 22d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 22d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $24 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 22d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 22d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 22d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 22d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 22d
Qatar vs. El Salvador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $15 22d
Qatar leading at halftime? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 22d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 22d
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22d
Bolivia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $15 22d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.50 · official $34.75 · 2420 history records