Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8A 0x8a66…7ea4 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+1%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$11
other 41% −$1
sports 8% +$4
crypto 6% $0
world 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 50% +33.5%
≤90d 7 +9.2% -1.2% 57% 29% -1.7%
all 30 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 7% -9.0%
10% -16.4% 7% -17.7%
15% -24.5% 7% -25.7%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage341d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 05 $16 +$12 +77%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox Apr 29 $9 +$8 +86%
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? Apr 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 30 $70 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? Feb 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 5-11? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Jan 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 12? Nov 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? Nov 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on September 10? Sep 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 22 $55 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 10 $300 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $190 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Sep 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 08 $320 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 08 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Sep 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Sep 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 29 $300 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 29 $316 $0 -0%
Will Branko Marinković win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $112 $0 -0%
Will KrF win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Jul 09 $240 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $21 1h
Will Pietro Mastropasqua win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? BUY No 56¢ $16 10d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 23¢ $3 59d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $9 59d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $58 65d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 65d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 76d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $70 76d
Will Solana dip to $10 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 76d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $70 76d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 130d
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 130d
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 136d
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL No 100¢ $57 151d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $10 160d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $15 193d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 100¢ $75 209d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 209d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 209d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL No 100¢ $35 214d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 214d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL No 100¢ $25 214d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY No 100¢ $60 214d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 214d
Will the price of Solana be less than $150 on September 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 278d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 278d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $70 278d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 278d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $120 278d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.34 · official $47.34 (match) · 76 history records