Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:51:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a65…04d3
other · 72 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$106 -23%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$64
Realized−$105
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 52
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage105d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 4 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $52 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Main Card) Edmen Shahbazyan 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Iran leadership change by April 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $5 +$5 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 +$11 +145%
Will Barcelona place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 +$16 +163%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Losene Keita win by KO or TKO? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in March 2026? Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos (Featherweight, Main C Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gillian Robertson vs. Amanda Lemos (Women's Strawweig Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Pr Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-12? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Caio Borralho win by KO or TKO? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$44
world 23% −$54
sports 17% −$1
crypto 12% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 100¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $5 6d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 38¢ $5 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 13d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 15d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Joshua Van 100¢ $19 34d
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Joshua Van 40¢ $8 34d
Will Barcelona place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 34d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Brady 100¢ $4 34d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Brady 45¢ $2 34d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 58d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 58d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 62d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $52 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 66d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 67d
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 72d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 72d
Iran leadership change by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 72d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 74d
Will Barcelona place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 76d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 76d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 77d
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -35.0%
≤90d 51 -64.9% -68.2% 12% 12% -62.1%
all 68 -30.5% -37.1% 24% 24% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 24% -33.9%
10% -43.1% 24% -40.2%
15% -48.6% 24% -46.0%
20% -53.7% 22% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.79 · official $63.79 (match) · 147 history records