Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8A 0x8a64…3c57 crypto 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 46d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-35%) realized −$53 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$40
crypto 21% −$44
world 3% −$9
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-71.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.4% -66.9% 33% 0% -87.5%
≤30d 5 -78.0% -80.1% 20% 0% -96.0%
≤90d 8 -68.9% -71.9% 25% 12% -84.3%
all 8 -68.9% -71.9% 25% 12% -84.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.9% 12% -84.3%
10% -74.6% 12% -85.8%
15% -77.0% 12% -87.2%
20% -79.3% 0% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage46d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $90 $75 −$15 (-17%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 22? May 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 29 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 29 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.23 · official $150.23 (match) · 14 history records