Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a62…ace3
weather · 847 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,385 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,359 · open −$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,223
Realized−$1,359
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses782 / 133
Open positions62
Markets (closed)915 / 847
History coverage9d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day318.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 62 History 915 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,357
7 days−$1,346
14 days−$1,359
30 days−$1,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? No 99¢ 95¢ $97 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 100¢ 96¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 98¢ 89¢ $50 $45 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 99¢ 97¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? No 97¢ 78¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 12? No 97¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 7? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? No 97¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? No 98¢ 88¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 34°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 86°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 89¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on May 28? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ap Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 16? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 22 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 16 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 15 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on March 30? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ma Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 80°F or higher on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 19? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Apr Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 29 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 20 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ap Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on April 16? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on March Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 2? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 19 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on April 9? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on April 3? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 4? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 21 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 10 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 19 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 58°F or higher on April 14? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Apri Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 20 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on February Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on Mar Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 23 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on May 31? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $10 8m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3 10m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 18m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 18m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 26m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 27m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 28m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 30m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 41m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 47m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 53m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 753 -16.6% -24.5% 83% 0% -15.8%
≤30d 915 -13.3% -21.5% 85% 1% -14.6%
≤90d 915 -13.3% -21.5% 85% 1% -14.6%
all 915 -13.3% -21.5% 85% 1% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover318.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 1% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 0% -22.8%
15% -35.9% 0% -30.3%
20% -42.2% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.21 · official $1,222.60 (match) · 3500 history records