Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8a5c…8fc8 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$108 (+39%) realized +$109 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$106
14 days+$104
30 days+$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$39
sports 27% +$74
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +24.6% +12.7% 41% 41% +37.0%
≤30d 18 +17.6% +6.4% 39% 39% +35.7%
≤90d 18 +17.6% +6.4% 39% 39% +35.7%
all 18 +17.6% +6.4% 39% 39% +35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 39% +35.7%
10% -3.7% 39% +22.7%
15% -13.0% 39% +10.8%
20% -21.6% 33% -0.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$5 · ×4.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.76 per $1 lost it wins $2.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$109
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +90%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 49m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 44h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.67 · official $63.67 (match) · 39 history records