Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a59…52e2
crypto · 333 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses144 / 183
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)327 / 333
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 6 History 327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$25
14 days−$27
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 59¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Canada be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 91% −$52
sports 6% −$10
culture 1% −$4
other 1% −$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -16.4% -24.4% 40% 22% -18.5%
≤30d 327 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 28% -15.9%
≤90d 327 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 28% -15.9%
all 327 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 28% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 28% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 18% -24.0%
15% -30.4% 11% -31.3%
20% -37.2% 8% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.28 · official $5.28 (match) · 1453 history records