Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8A 0x8a58…5fb7 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$366 (+33%) realized +$365 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$269
other 14% +$86
world 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +26.0%
≤30d 38 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +26.0%
≤90d 38 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +26.0%
all 38 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 50% +26.0%
10% +9.1% 50% +13.9%
15% -1.5% 50% +2.9%
20% -11.1% 42% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +94% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$15 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$365
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage7d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 45¢ 46¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 46¢ 46¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 +$25 +474%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 +$22 +149%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 +$30 +289%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $59 −$59 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $23 +$17 +70%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $40 +$30 +76%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $33 +$37 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $31 +$39 +129%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $29 +$31 +105%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $32 +$18 +55%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $30 +$30 +97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$25 +510%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $37 +$43 +114%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $63 +$57 +90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $7 +$43 +596%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $135 +$148 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 +$15 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 46¢ $33 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $32 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $40 3h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $10 16h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $15 16h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY 39¢ $15 21h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $30 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $33 24h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $23 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $40 26h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 26h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 22¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 50¢ $30 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 64¢ $32 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $59 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.05 · official $113.05 (match) · 88 history records