Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a57…0761 politics 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
politics 26% $0
crypto 23% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage426d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 30 $4 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $7 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jul 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mercedes finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? Jul 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jul 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 26 $761 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 26 $382 $0 +0%
Will Ronnie Brunswijk be the next president of Suriname after the elec May 26 $370 $0 +0%
Macron cocaine use confirmed? May 26 $362 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 26 $320 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $370 $0 -0%
Will Melania Trump be deported? Apr 15 $358 $0 +0%
Will Canada block Pornhub in the U.S. before May? Apr 15 $731 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 15 $361 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high in April? Apr 15 $357 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 100¢ $8 25h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $4 15d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $4 16d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 31d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 31d
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $5 63d
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $5 63d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $7 246d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $7 247d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $9 254d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 91¢ $9 254d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $7 261d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $7 261d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $9 284d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $9 284d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 US Open? SELL No 100¢ $10 312d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 US Open? BUY No 100¢ $10 312d
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 322d
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 322d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 100¢ $9 329d
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 100¢ $9 329d
Will Mercedes finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? SELL No 100¢ $3 337d
Will Mercedes finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? BUY No 100¢ $3 337d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi SELL No 100¢ $8 346d
Will Pirates win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi BUY No 100¢ $8 346d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 358d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 358d
Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $6 372d
Will Alexander Isak win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $6 372d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records