Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a54…2365 crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%84W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$9
14 days+$16
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 33 -0.8% -10.2% 97% 3% -8.2%
≤90d 81 -0.4% -9.9% 98% 4% -9.6%
all 88 -0.4% -9.9% 95% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses84 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage99d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $87 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $30 +$6 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $84 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $82 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $61 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $77 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 29 $73 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 28 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $68 +$3 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $67 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $65 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $63 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $59 +$4 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $58 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $56 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? May 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 08 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? May 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 4? May 04 $65 −$65 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? May 03 $60 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $96 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $92 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $91 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $91 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $80 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 92¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $88 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $87 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $50 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 81¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? BUY No 70¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? BUY No 97¢ $84 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $82 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $61 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 95¢ $20 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $79 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $77 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $74 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $77 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $77 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $76 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? BUY No 96¢ $73 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $42 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? BUY No 96¢ $30 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 99¢ $71 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? BUY No 95¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.35 · official $96.35 (match) · 179 history records