Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a53…eaa2 other 165 markets active 6d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%25W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$5
other 24% −$3
politics 22% −$3
crypto 10% −$1
culture 6% $0
economics 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.7%
all 165 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses25 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage150d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $51 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 18 $99 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 12 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 11 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $56 $0 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $134 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 02 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $56 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 6d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $48 6d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $51 18d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $51 19d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $46 30d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $46 32d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $46 88d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $46 88d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 88d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $42 88d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 88d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $48 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $46 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 95¢ $46 89d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 89d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 89d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $52 89d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $13 89d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $40 89d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $42 89d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $42 90d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 90d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 90d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $53 90d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $53 90d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $45 90d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $45 90d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $43 90d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $30 90d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $13 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 668 history records