Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8a50…ed9a
crypto · 153 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,787 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,780 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$682
Realized−$5,780
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses122 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage13d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day100.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$3,321
14 days−$5,780
30 days−$5,780
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $550 $558 +$8 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $139 $124 −$15 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $227 +$23 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $96 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $3,333 +$114 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $933 +$50 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1,280 +$65 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $149 +$62 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $604 +$35 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $907 +$96 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $403 +$39 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $580 +$76 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $985 +$157 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $152 +$32 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $633 +$66 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $75 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $81 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $452 −$45 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $125 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $523 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $504 +$63 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $2,209 +$129 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $221 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $1,104 +$52 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $1,648 +$125 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1,005 +$68 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $1,504 +$62 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $122 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $1,104 +$55 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1,333 +$111 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $1,002 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $1,030 +$64 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $4,232 +$100 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 10 $303 +$51 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $94 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $1,279 −$1,279 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $427 +$34 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $228 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $403 +$44 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$829
other 10% −$4,958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $250 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 12¢ $123 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 27% -5.5%
≤30d 148 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.3%
≤90d 148 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.3%
all 148 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 30% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover100.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 30% -15.3%
10% -20.7% 11% -23.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 5% -30.8%
20% -35.4% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $681.98 · official $864.98 · 1387 history records