Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a4d…17e8 world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate30%23W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$6
other 20% −$10
politics 12% $0
sports 10% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.8% -11.2% 17% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 69 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 3% -9.4%
all 76 -5.2% -14.3% 30% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -22.5% 3% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 53
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage526d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 68¢ 68¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $197 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $59 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $41 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $32 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $86 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $101 +$3 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $97 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $20 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $95 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $49 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $111 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $21 +$5 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $36 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $40 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $2 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $91 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $75 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $48 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $36 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $7 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $12 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $32 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $1 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $17 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 41¢ $16 35h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $40 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $19 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.11 · official $47.95 (match) · 334 history records