trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by June 30? | Jun 11 | $5,990 | +$65,668 | +1096% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? | Jun 09 | $9,321 | +$549 | +6% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $4,314 | +$336 | +8% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Jun 02 | $18,400 | +$1,600 | +9% |
| Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? | May 28 | $2,640 | +$224 | +8% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | May 25 | $2 | +$2 | +129% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 24 | $18,403 | +$487 | +3% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? | May 21 | $12,854 | +$2,384 | +18% |
| Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $9,971 | −$2,154 | -22% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 18 | $9,103 | −$38 | -0% |
| Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? | May 01 | $985 | +$27 | +3% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $99,900 | +$100 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +370.0% | +325.3% | 100% | 33% | +297.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +107.7% | +88.0% | 80% | 30% | +76.2% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +90.0% | +71.9% | 83% | 25% | +26.7% |
| all | 12 | +90.0% | +71.9% | 83% | 25% | +26.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +71.9% | 25% | +26.7% |
| 10% | +55.5% | 17% | +14.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +40.5% | 17% | +3.5% |
| 20% | +26.7% | 17% | -6.7% |