Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8a4a…3026 sports 227 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$143 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%114W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$10
14 days−$11
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$22
other 12% −$4
world 1% −$70
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 55% -9.0%
≤30d 205 -0.8% -10.2% 51% 51% -12.9%
≤90d 223 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 51% -11.8%
all 223 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 51% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 51% -11.8%
10% -18.5% 51% -20.3%
15% -26.4% 51% -28.0%
20% -33.6% 49% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses114 / 109
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions4
Markets (closed)223 / 227
History coverage54d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 39¢ 70¢ $71 $126 +$56 (+79%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $98 $103 +$5 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $54 +$38 +71%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $17 −$11 -66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $25 −$24 -99%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$11 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $72 +$43 +60%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul Jun 21 $16 +$9 +58%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 21 $19 −$19 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $24 −$24 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Tiafoe Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $21 −$21 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $24 +$16 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $40 +$42 +105%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 21 $30 +$26 +88%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 21 $17 −$16 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$16 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$26 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $21 +$21 +100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 20 $26 +$17 +66%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 +$17 +65%
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$24 +119%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $19 +$25 +129%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $24 +$28 +114%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$47 +119%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $21 +$30 +140%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$14 +57%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $22 +$20 +90%
Elina Svitolina vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Zverev vs. Collignon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $15 +$10 +62%
Ben Shelton vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$18 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$43 +90%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $19 −$19 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $34 +$24 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$27 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $37 −$36 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $43 +$24 +56%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $57 +$35 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $99 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 15¢ $6 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $17 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $54 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $74 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $16 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $72 10h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 54¢ $25 11h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 54¢ $25 11h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 52¢ $19 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $24 19h
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul BUY Paul 63¢ $3 19h
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Paul BUY Paul 63¢ $13 19h
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Vallejo (+1.5) BUY Hanfmann 58¢ $15 19h
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Tiafoe BUY Fritz 63¢ $25 19h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Fritz 49¢ $21 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $24 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $13 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se BUY No 55¢ $17 26h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 53¢ $14 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.54 · official $284.54 (match) · 407 history records